Conferências FFLCH - USP, I Congresso Internacional Pensamento e Pesquisa sobre a América Latina

Tamanho da fonte: 
Domestic sources of foreign policy: how political polarization and foreign policy politicisation impact foreign policy goals?
Italo Beltrão Sposito

##manager.scheduler.building##: Departamento de Geografia da FFLCH - USP
##manager.scheduler.room##: Sala 8
Data: 2019-05-07 02:00  – 05:00
Última alteração: 2019-05-02

Resumo


My objective is to identify the impact of domestic sources over South American countries’ foreign policies. As revolutions and foreign interventions in the region are now rare (or non-existent), I will study contested government successions occurred during crisis or under institutional instability seeking for high degrees of political polarisation, and broader changes in government political coalitions. I expect that succession under these circumstances will have higher degrees of political polarization and foreign policy politicisation, enabling a clearer observation of political cleavages and domestic actors’ influence on foreign policy.

Six processes of presidential successions in South America were selected for comparison. Three occurred during periods of institutional instability and political crisis, whereby new governments rose with significant domestic and international contestation: a) Martín Vizcarra’s step in office, Peru (2017); b) Temer’s rise in Brazil, 2016; c) and Lugo’s substitution by Federico Franco in Paraguay, 2012. And other three regular successions, through elections: d) Macri in 2015, Argentina; e) Juan Manuel Santos, Colombia, 2010; and f) Piñera in Chile, also in 2010.

Regarding political polarisation, I propose to investigate two hypotheses: 1) the higher the degree of international political polarization – following a growing polarization spectrum ranging from multipolar, to unipolar and bipolar – the larger the difference among foreign policies among successive governments; 2) the more politically distant two coalitions before succession, the larger the differences among their foreign policies. Regarding politicization, I drafted two other hypotheses: 3) the more foreign policy issues are politicized before political succession, the larger domestic politics influence; 4) the broader the public debate on foreign policy, the more changes a new government will implement in foreign policy. Using comparative methods, I intend to identify patterns within each kind of political succession, and how domestic actors differently influenced foreign policies.


Palavras-chave


foreign policy; polarization; politicization; coalition